What Successful Leaders Know about Uncertainty

And why it can reduce burnout and drive engagement

Knowing how to lead through uncertainty, complexity, and change is essential for every leader and team wanting to succeed today. 

But that doesn’t mean we should always keep our eyes glued to the uncertainty, complexity, and change in the world we’re trying to influence. 

Successful mission-driven leaders also focus on how these dynamics affect them and others so they can better navigate the overriding dynamics of our time, avoid burnout, and drive engagement. 

One of the many strategies that emerge from understanding this about uncertainty:

Not knowing when something uncertain will occur can become increasingly disempowering over time—even if the probability is unchanging—unless wisely addressed. 

Put another way: Recent research shows that our responses to uncertainty are not just about the unknown itself, but also about how we process and anticipate potential threats over time. When we constantly expect something bad to happen, our anxiety can grow—regardless of its probability.

This was demonstrated in a 2024 study from the University of California, Davis, that found that our perception of risk, or the “hazard rate,” grows over time if we’re unsure about the event’s timing.

For example, the authors report that if you know you’ll receive a shock at the end of a ten-second countdown, your anxiety might remain low until the countdown ends. However, if the shock could happen at any moment during those ten seconds, your anxiety—and the perceived risk—rises as time passes.

So, how does that help leaders guide others through uncertain times?

The Bottomline

Understanding that anxiety increases as perceived risk grows over time can help leaders recognize and manage the emotional impact of uncertainty on their teams. 

By addressing these perceptions, leaders can better guide their teams through uncertain situations, lower unnecessary stress, and reduce the risk of burnout and disengagement associated with uncertainty. 

As the U.C. Davis authors note, Alfred Hitchcock once observed, “There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it." 

In short, managing the emotions associated with uncertainty is vital to building strong, resilient teams capable of rising to today’s important mission-driven goals.

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